In many states, the outcome appeared settled long before delegates cast their votes, reflecting the growing dominance of political calculations over open competition within the APC.
The nationwide governorship primary elections of the All Progressives Congress (APC) were characterised by a whirlwind of high-stakes political manoeuvres, reshaping the sub-national balance of power across Nigeria.
In many states, the outcome appeared settled long before delegates cast their votes, reflecting the growing dominance of political calculations over open competition within the ruling party.
The primaries, conducted in line with the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) timetable, produced candidates in 28 states.
The exercise excluded Anambra, Bayelsa, Edo, Ekiti, Imo, Kogi, Ondo and Osun states, which currently operate on “off-cycle” schedules because past court rulings overturned flawed elections or altered the tenures of sitting governors.
Consequently, the party focused its logistical and strategic machinery exclusively on the remaining 28 states, where intense zoning debates, high-profile defections, and deep party horse-trading took centre stage. They include;
A review of the primaries shows five dominant themes: the increasing use of defections as a political recruitment strategy, the overwhelming advantage enjoyed by incumbents, the growing preference for consensus and affirmation arrangements, the continuing relevance of zoning in succession politics and the enduring influence of party power brokers in determining outcomes.
One of the most striking features of the primaries was the extent to which the APC benefited from the defection of opposition governors and political heavyweights.
In several states, the most consequential political battles occurred before the primaries themselves, as the party focused on negotiating the entry of influential opposition figures and integrating their political structures into the APC. Once those negotiations were concluded, the primaries became largely procedural exercises.
Governors such as Abba Yusuf of Kano, Dauda Lawal (Zamfara), Sheriff Oborevwori (Delta), Agbu Kefas (Taraba), Caleb Mutfwang (Plateau), Umo Eno (Akwa Ibom) and Peter Mbah (Enugu) all emerged as major beneficiaries of this strategy after aligning with the ruling party.
Their emergence underscores the APC’s determination to expand its political footprint ahead of 2027, not merely through electoral competition but through strategic acquisitions of existing political structures controlled by incumbent governors.
The primaries also reinforced a long-established reality in Nigerian politics: incumbency remains one of the most powerful advantages available to any politician.
In state after state, sitting governors seeking second terms encountered little resistance from within their party.
Governors, including Uba Sani of Kaduna, Dikko Radda of Katsina, Nasir Idris of Kebbi, Umar Namadi of Jigawa, Hyacinth Alia of Benue, Francis Nwifuru of Ebonyi and Bassey Otu of Cross River, secured their tickets either unopposed or through affirmation exercises that effectively eliminated competitive challenges.
The pattern suggests that control of state party structures, access to government resources, influence over local political networks and endorsement by party stakeholders continue to provide incumbents with overwhelming advantages during candidate selection processes.
Another defining characteristic of the APC primaries was the widespread use of consensus and affirmation mechanisms.
While the party leadership consistently defended such arrangements as necessary to preserve unity and prevent post-primary disputes, critics argue that they often reduced opportunities for genuine internal competition and weakened the democratic character of the selection process.
Governors who benefited from this system included Dikko Radda (Katsina), Uba Sani (Kaduna), Nasir Idris (Kebbi), Umar Namadi (Jigawa), Hyacinth Alia (Benue), Bassey Otu (Cross River), Francis Nwifuru (Ebonyi), Umo Eno (Akwa Ibom), Peter Mbah (Enugu), Sheriff Oborevwori (Delta), Caleb Mutfwang (Plateau), Agbu Kefas (Taraba), Dauda Lawal (Zamfara) and Abba Yusuf (Kano), all of whom either secured return tickets or emerged with overwhelming support.
The trend reflects a broader preference within the party for stability and predictability, particularly in states where leaders feared that open contests could deepen existing factional divisions.
In states where governors are approaching the end of their constitutionally permitted two terms, zoning and regional balancing emerged as major considerations.
In Kwara, House of Assembly Speaker Salihu Danladi benefited from longstanding demands that power shift to Kwara North. In Ogun, Olamilekan Adeola (Yayi), a serving senator, emerged amid arguments that Ogun West should produce the next governor, for the first time in the state’s history.
In Yobe, Baba Wali’s emergence reflected efforts to maintain regional balance, while in Nasarawa, Ahmed Wadada’s victory followed intense debates over succession and senatorial zoning considerations.
Although zoning arrangements remain unofficial in many instances, they continue to serve as important tools for managing competing regional interests and preserving political stability within party structures.
Despite repeated calls for greater internal democracy, the primaries demonstrated the continued influence of political godfathers and power brokers.
Former governors, serving ministers and senior party leaders played decisive roles in shaping outcomes across several states.
In Sokoto, the influence of Aliyu Wamakko, a former governor and serving senator, remained critical to Governor Ahmad Aliyu’s emergence. In Katsina, former Governor Aminu Masari’s support strengthened Governor Dikko Radda’s position. In Ebonyi, the political structure built by Minister of Works David Umahi, a former governor, continued to shape the state’s APC politics.
Similarly, Vice President Kashim Shettima and Governor Babagana Zulum were widely regarded as influential figures in the emergence of Mustapha Gubio in Borno, while Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq played a key role in the succession calculations that produced Mr Danladi in Kwara.
The recurring influence of these figures highlights the extent to which personal political networks remain deeply embedded in Nigeria’s party system.
Although the APC largely avoided the large-scale crises that have accompanied some previous primary elections, several contests exposed unresolved tensions within the party.
Rivers State generated significant controversy following the withdrawal of Governor Siminalayi Fubara from the race and the subsequent emergence of Kingsley Chinda as the party’s candidate. Ogun witnessed legal threats after rival aspirant Abayomi Hunye challenged the outcome of the primary election.
