A governorship candidate must obtain the highest number of votes and at least one-quarter of the votes cast in at least two-thirds of the 30 LGAs to emerge the winner.
Osun has 2,339,233 registered voters, out of which 1,906,3,90, who collected the Permanent Voters Card (PVC) are eligible to vote in Saturday’s governorship election.
The more revealing question is where those voters are concentrated, how many are likely to turn up and what margins the candidates can build in those areas.
INEC’s figures show that Osogbo has the largest electorate in the state, with 167,704 registered voters, representing 7.17 per cent of the total register.
Ife East follows with 128,515 voters, or 5.50 per cent, while Olorunda has 123,063, representing 5.26 per cent. Ife Central has another 122,454 voters, or 5.24 per cent.
Iwo has 106,813 registered voters, representing 4.57 per cent of the state’s electorate. Irewole has 96,528 (4.13 per cent), while Ifelodun has 94,870 (4.06 per cent).
10 LGAs with the largest voter populations account for 1,113,813 registered voters, or 47.6 per cent of the entire register.
That means nearly half of Osun’s registered voters are concentrated in just 10 of the state’s 30 LGAs.
A large register is only potential electoral strength. PVC collection, mobilisation, turnout and the margin each candidate secures will determine how much of that potential becomes actual votes.
INEC said the number of registered voters in Osun rose from 1,954,800 to 2,339,233, an increase of 384,433 voters. But the commission noted that 322,822 newly registered voters had collected their Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs), representing 62 per cent, before it extended the collection deadline to 31 July.
The figures provide an important qualification to the size of the electorate. A large number of registered voters can give an LGA considerable electoral weight. Still, that weight ultimately depends on how many voters turn up on election day.
The 2022 election provides some useful background, but Saturday’s contest is a different political race.
Ademola Adeleke won the 2022 governorship election with a margin of 28,344 votes against the then incumbent, Gboyega Oyetola of the All Progressives Congress (APC).
This time, Mr Adeleke is seeking another term; the APC is fielding Bola Oyebamiji, while Najeem Salaam is contesting on the platform of the African Democratic Congress (ADC). There are 11 other candidates on the ballot.
So, how is the current distribution of voters likely to shape the 2026 contest?
Ede North has 96,644 registered voters, while Ede South has 67,729.
Together, the two LGAs have 164,373 registered voters, about seven per cent of Osun’s electorate.
That makes Ede one of the state’s important voting blocs.
For Mr Adeleke, the area he hails from carries particular political significance. But the size of the electorate also gives the APC and ADC an incentive to compete for votes there.
What matters on Saturday will be the turnout and the margin each candidate can secure.
Osogbo has the largest number of registered voters in the state — 167,704, or 7.17 per cent of the total.
Olorunda has another 123,063, representing 5.26 per cent.
Together, the two LGAs in the state capital have 290,767 registered voters, or 12.4 per cent of Osun’s entire register.
That gives the state capital one of the largest concentrations of voters in the election.
The decisive figure could be the eventual margin between the leading candidates after votes are counted.
If turnout is high and the race is closely contested, even a few thousand votes gained or lost in these two LGAs could affect the statewide calculation.
The three Ife LGAs — Ife East, Ife Central and Ife South — have a combined 317,224 registered voters, about 13.6 per cent of the state’s electorate.
Ife East has 128,515 voters, Ife Central 122,454 and Ife South 66,255.
That makes the Ife axis one of the largest voter concentrations in Osun.
A strong voter turnout could give Ife a great influence on the final result.
Iwo has 106,813 registered voters, representing 4.57 per cent of the state’s electorate.
It is the fifth-largest LGA by voter population.
The Ijesa axis also commands a substantial voting population.
