According to the group, rising petrol imports could undermine domestic refining, investment and foreign exchange conservation if approvals are granted without transparent evidence of supply shortfalls.
The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has urged the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) to tie petroleum-product import approvals to transparently verified domestic supply gaps.
The CPPE made the call in a policy brief released on Sunday by its Chief Executive Officer, Muda Yusuf, titled “Policy Brief on Rising Petroleum-Product Imports and the Future of Domestic Refining.”
The group said that where local refineries can supply products of acceptable quality and quantity at competitive market prices, indiscriminate import licensing could weaken investment, jobs, foreign-exchange conservation, industrialisation, and national energy security.
The position comes amid a recent increase in petrol imports despite the expansion of Nigeria’s domestic refining capacity.
According to figures contained in the CPPE brief and attributed to NMDPRA’s June and July 2026 monthly statistics, average daily Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) imports rose from 5.9 million litres in May to 18.1 million litres in June and 19.7 million litres in July.
Imported petrol consequently accounted for 12.4 per cent of total PMS receipts in May, 35.8 per cent in June and 43.3 per cent in July, according to the figures.
Domestic PMS supply, meanwhile, fell from 41.5 million litres per day in May to 32.5 million litres in June and 25.8 million litres in July, while total PMS receipts fell from 47.4 million litres in May to 45.5 million litres in July.
Mr Yusuf said the increase in imports should prompt a transparent assessment of the relationship between domestic production and market demand.
“The concern is not with imports required to close a genuine and independently verified shortfall,” the CPPE said.
The group said imports remained a legitimate contingency tool for refinery outages, seasonal demand spikes, quality gaps, and strategic stock replenishment.
It, however, argued that import permits should not be issued without a transparent demonstration that domestic refiners cannot meet relevant demand at acceptable standards and competitive market terms.
The development comes as Nigeria’s refining sector undergoes a major transition, particularly following the ramp-up of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and the return of other domestic refineries to operation.
Dangote Refinery, which has a nameplate capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, surpassed that capacity in a performance test in June, reaching more than 700,000 barrels per day, according to the company.
The refinery has also become an increasingly important supplier of refined products to Nigeria and regional markets, although its operations have continued to face challenges, including securing sufficient domestic crude supply.
Against that background, Mr Yusuf said Nigeria needed a more predictable framework for deciding when imports were necessary.
He cited Sections 317(8) and (9) of the Petroleum Industry Act, stating that the provisions contemplate licensing of petroleum product imports in the context of a domestic supply shortfall.
The CPPE therefore called for regulatory discretion to be exercised transparently, predictably, and consistently with Nigeria’s domestic refining and industrialisation objectives.
Mr Yusuf said a credible supply-gap assessment should disclose projected demand, verified domestic production and inventory, committed refinery deliveries, product specifications, logistics constraints and the precise residual volume requiring imports.
“Without this information, the market cannot determine whether permits address a real shortfall or merely expand import competition against available domestic output,” he said.
The group noted that a deregulated market did not imply regulatory indifference to the structure of supply, adding that the regulator must balance consumer protection and supply security with the domestic-supply framework under the Petroleum Industry Act.
It added that where domestic supply was genuinely adequate, import permits could suppress refinery offtake, weaken utilisation rates, and shift demand, income, and employment abroad.
Mr Yusuf also urged NMDPRA to establish predictable rules to encourage investment in refining, storage, pipelines, marine logistics, and petroleum product distribution.
He warned that frequent or unexplained reversals in import policy could increase uncertainty and raise the risk premium on downstream investments.
According to the CPPE, the recent import figures also have implications for Nigeria’s foreign-exchange position.
The group said every avoidable litre of imported petroleum products creates demand for foreign exchange to cover product costs, freight, insurance and associated charges, adding that domestic refining, by contrast, could retain a larger share of the value generated from petroleum-product supply within Nigeria, even where some crude or specialised inputs are imported.
The CPPE also linked domestic refining to employment across engineering, maintenance, fabrication, laboratories, haulage, storage, retail, maritime services and professional services.
Mr Yusuf said refining was a strategic anchor industry because it provides fuels and feedstocks for petrochemicals, plastics, fertiliser, pharmaceuticals, paints, packaging and other manufacturing activities.
The group also argued that stronger domestic refining capacity would improve energy security by shortening supply chains and reducing Nigeria’s exposure to shipping disruptions, geopolitical conflicts, freight shocks, and international petroleum product shortages.
It said that having several reliable domestic refiners would provide greater security than dependence on either imports or a single refinery.
