Tech billionaire Elon Musk has claimed that deaths across Africa have declined despite significant cuts to United States foreign aid, arguing that the reductions ended programmes he believes contributed to instability on the continent.
Musk made the claim on Tuesday while responding to criticism of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), whose cost-cutting initiatives, which he has backed, led to major reductions in funding for the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID).
In a post on his X handle, Musk cited 2025 mortality data from several African countries, arguing that there had been no measurable increase in deaths following the aid cuts.
“Deaths in Africa DECREASED after USAID funding was cut, because they’re no longer able to push for violent revolution to install leftist regimes!” he wrote while sharing an analysis that focused on South Africa’s all-cause mortality data.
The data included a graph tracking weekly deaths in South Africa from January 2023 to May 2026, highlighting the period after reductions to USAID/PEPFAR funding.
According to the analysis, observed excess deaths remained close to zero and were lower than projections made before the funding cuts.
The accompanying report also referenced studies questioning the overall impact of foreign aid on health outcomes, including a 2019 paper that found limited statistical evidence linking aid levels to improvements in life expectancy or mortality rates in developing countries.
Musk has consistently defended the funding cuts, maintaining that they were necessary to curb waste, corruption and the misuse of taxpayer funds for political objectives rather than humanitarian purposes.
He further argued that some previous USAID activities in Africa helped fuel violent revolutions aimed at installing left-wing governments and claimed that ending such funding had removed a source of conflict.
