Two years into President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration, Nigeria’s economy stands at a crossroads—marked by bold reforms, record-breaking fiscal ambitions, and rising hardship for millions. With over ₦83.7tn in signed budgets, Tinubu has pursued an aggressive overhaul of monetary and fiscal policy, promising to restore stability, attract investment, and launch Nigeria into the $1tn economy club.
Yet, while the Central Bank touts a rebound in foreign reserves and progress on exchange rate unification, the current realities of ordinary Nigerians tell a more painful story—soaring inflation, a battered naira, and deepening poverty. Experts and analysts are divided: some see structural progress; others, a growing disconnect between economic figures and social wellbeing.
The president appointed Wale Edun as the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy to oversee his ambitious economic reforms that would usher Nigeria into the $1tn economy club.
He also named Olayemi Cardoso as the Central Bank Governor with the task to depart from the non-conventional approach of the Godwin Emefiele-led CBN and adopt a more conventional approach.
When Tinubu assumed office on May 29,2023, he made a concrete commitment to sanitise Nigeria’s monetary policy space which had been challenged by inflation, foreign exchange crunch and unstable exchange rate.
“Monetary policy needs thorough housecleaning. The Central Bank must work towards a unified exchange rate. This will direct funds away from arbitrage into meaningful investment in the plant, equipment and jobs that power the real economy.
“Interest rates need to be reduced to increase investment and consumer purchasing in ways that sustain the economy at a higher level,” he had said in his 2023 inauguration speech.
Another commitment he made was to overhaul existing fiscal policy structures that had limited government revenues during the Muhammadu Buhari-led government.
To achieve this, the president vowed to introduce a tax reform that would widen the tax net and eliminate multiple taxation.
He promised, “Budgetary reform stimulating the economy without engendering inflation will be instituted. Our government shall review all their complaints about multiple taxation.”
NewsNGRreviewed Tinubu’s monetary policy successes and failures in the last two years.
Tinubu took over from former President Muhammadu Buhari at a time when the country was experiencing foreign exchange crunch and an unstable exchange rate.
The CBN had a foreign exchange backlog of $7bn, operated multiple exchange rates- the investors and exporters’ (I&E) foreign exchange window, the secondary market intervention sales retail window, the small and medium-size enterprises (SME) window, and the window for invisibles.
Under Tinubu, the CBN inherited an official rate of N461 per dollar, while at the parallel market, controlled by Bureau de Change Operators, the naira traded at N780 per dollar, leaving a margin of N319 per dollar.
An investigation showed that as of June 14, 2024, the CBN collapsed the different FX markets into the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) and reintroduced the ‘Willing Buyer, Willing Seller Model.’
The apex bank also introduced a managed float. With the reforms, the CBN has achieved a more stable exchange in two years despite the depreciation of the naira from N461 in May 2023 to N1,579.4 per dollar as of May 26, 2025.
The CBN has also recorded success in reducing the gap between the official rate and black market rate to about N40.6 as of May 2025, as the black market rate traded at N1,620 per dollar on May 27, 2025.
But PwC’s Nigeria Economic Outlook report indicated that the naira’s value fell by 98 per cent in a seven-month period between May and December 2023.
The bank also cleared the outstanding $7bn foreign exchange following a successful verification exercise by forensic auditors.
The current administration inherited net foreign exchange reserves, which fell to $3.7bn by 2022 ending. It fell from $14bn held in December 2021, according to JP Morgan.
“Based on partial information from the audited financial accounts, we estimate that CBN’s net FX reserves were around US$3.7bn at the end of last year, from US$14.0bn at end-2021,” JP Morgan had stated.
In NewsNGR’s review in the last two years, net reserves have risen from the $3.7bn to $23.11bn, according to CBN financials.
“This improvement in our net reserves is not accidental; it is the outcome of deliberate policy choices aimed at rebuilding confidence, reducing vulnerabilities, and laying the foundation for long-term stability,” the apex bank governor, Cardoso said.
Tinubu inherited an inflationary pressure which pushed the Consumer Price Index to 22.22 per cent in April, 2023.
In April, food inflation was 24.61 per cent on a year-on-year basis.
In the last two years, Cardoso-led CBN has recorded little success in taming inflation, which rose to a historic 34.80 per cent in December 2024.
In June 2024, food inflation rose to a record 40.87 per cent in June 2024.
However, after the rebasing of the CPI, a report by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that inflation dropped to 23.71 per cent, which is higher than the 22.22 per cent inherited by Tinubu.
Tinubu’s Fiscal Regime In Two Years
The success of Tinubu’s fiscal regime hinges on his tax reform, subsidy removal and budget implementation.
Tinubu promised to overhaul the tax system he met with the intention to widen tax net, eliminate double taxation and increase government earnings.
Tinubu’s fiscal team has made strides in reforming the country’s tax environment.
In terms of revenue generation, the Tinubu-led government has seen revenue from customs and the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) surge by 300 per cent.
In 2022, the Nigeria Customs Service (NCS) collected N2.14tn. But in 2024, NCS collected over N6.1tn in revenue, surpassing its annual target of N5.07tn and the N2.14tn under Buhari.
Also, FIRS raked in a record N21. 6tn revenue in 2024, driven basically by non-oil taxes, which is 200 per cent up from the N10.1tn recorded in 2022.
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