Poverty levels in Nigeria are expected to worsen significantly over the next two years, with as many as 141 million Nigerians, representing about 62 per cent of the population, projected to be living in poverty by 2026, according to PwC.
The projection is contained in PwC’s Nigeria Economic Outlook 2026, titled “Turning Macroeconomic Stability into Sustainable Growth”, which warns that recent policy adjustments aimed at stabilising the economy are yet to translate into tangible welfare gains for households.
PwC noted that weak real income growth, combined with persistently high living costs, is likely to push millions more Nigerians into poverty despite expectations that headline inflation may gradually moderate.
The firm estimates that Nigeria’s poverty rate will rise to 62 per cent by 2026, reflecting the compounding effects of sluggish income growth and lingering inflationary pressures.
According to the report, most Nigerians are unlikely to see income increases that meaningfully offset rising costs in the near term.
As a result, households, particularly those at the lower end of the income spectrum, remain highly vulnerable to economic shocks.
“Poverty is projected to rise to 62 per cent, affecting about 141 million people by 2026, reflecting weak real income growth and lingering inflation effects,” PwC stated.
While inflation is expected to ease gradually, the firm cautioned that the underlying cost structure of the economy suggests limited affordability gains for households.
PwC explained that structural factors such as high energy costs, elevated logistics expenses and exchange rate pass-through effects will continue to keep prices of food and essential goods at elevated levels.
A major driver of worsening poverty, according to the report, is the consumption pattern of low-income households.
PwC highlighted that food accounts for as much as 70 per cent of total consumption among poorer Nigerians, making them disproportionately exposed to food price increases.
With food inflation remaining elevated, these households are bearing the brunt of rising prices, further eroding their purchasing power.
The firm stressed that even modest price shocks in food and essential commodities have outsized effects on welfare among low-income groups.
PwC added that without stronger real income growth, targeted social interventions and policies that address structural cost drivers, macroeconomic stability alone will not be sufficient to reverse Nigeria’s rising poverty trend.
The report underscores the need for reforms that go beyond stabilisation, focusing on boosting productivity, supporting job creation and improving household purchasing power to achieve more inclusive and sustainable economic growth.
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