Nigeria could enter 2026 on its strongest economic footing in more than a decade, driven by easing inflation, rising investments, major corporate listings and a stabilising monetary environment, according to Economist and Managing Director of Financial Derivatives Company (FDC), Bismarck Rewane.
Speaking at the Parthian Economic Discourse 2025 held in Lagos, Rewane described 2026 as a defining year in which structural reforms, increased private-sector activity and improved policy coordination converge to rebuild momentum in Africa’s largest economy.
Rewane said Nigeria is approaching a pivotal economic shift after years of high inflation, which peaked above 34 per cent, severe exchange-rate distortions and weak investment conditions.
The combination of firmer macroeconomic fundamentals and reform alignment, he noted, is creating a new platform for a more durable cycle of growth.
He pointed to ongoing reorganisation in key sectors including manufacturing, banking, technology, telecommunications, the creative industry and real estate, all of which are benefitting from more favourable operating conditions.
A major part of this expected turnaround is the rapid expansion anticipated in the capital market.
Rewane projected that the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) could see its total market capitalisation rise sharply to N262trn in 2026, up from the current N93trn.
At that level, the market would represent about 72 per cent of Nigeria’s projected GDP, positioning it among the fastest-growing exchanges across emerging markets.
He attributed the outlook to expected mega listings such as the Dangote Refinery and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC), supported by stronger profitability in major sectors including telecoms, cement, consumer goods and banking.
He added that investor sentiment is already shifting positively due to improving foreign-exchange stability, steady disinflation and more confident earnings forecasts from leading corporates.
Inflation, one of the country’s most significant economic challenges in recent years, is expected to ease meaningfully next year.
Rewane projects that both food and core inflation could fall to around 20 per cent in 2026, reflecting a firm disinflation stance by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
He said improved domestic refining capacity will help reduce volatility in fuel prices, while stronger manufacturing output, rising productivity, and reforms aimed at cutting logistics and supply-chain costs will reinforce price stability.
A drop in inflation, he added, would strengthen households’ purchasing power, stimulating demand across retail, services and industrial sectors.
On monetary policy, Rewane expects 2026 to mark the beginning of cautious interest-rate cuts by the CBN after nearly two years of aggressive tightening. He warned that the apex bank will move carefully, ensuring evidence of sustained disinflation, stronger liquidity management through effective cash-reserve and liquidity-ratio controls, more efficient FX operations, improved external reserves and credible fiscal consolidation.
According to him, policymakers will be working to avoid the risk of cutting rates prematurely, which could reignite inflation, while also not tightening for too long in a way that could stifle investment momentum.
A more stable and stronger naira is also expected to emerge next year. Rewane projected an exchange-rate band of N1450 to N1500 per dollar in 2026, supported by higher oil production and export earnings, improved FX supply from rising reserves, reduced arbitrage opportunities due to ongoing policy reforms and a moderation in import demand following fiscal and trade measures. He stressed that currency stability will be central to restoring investor confidence and enabling businesses to plan effectively.
Nigeria’s overall economic performance is equally expected to strengthen.
Rewane forecast GDP growth to rise to 4.1 per cent in 2026, boosted by expanding business activity, infrastructure improvements, better implementation of industrial policies, stronger private-sector credit, improved trade flows and greater domestic value addition. Consumption, which has been heavily suppressed by inflation, is projected to recover gradually, while investment spending is expected to be supported by robust government-bond issuance and continued expansion in public infrastructure.
With reforms deepening across sectors and macroeconomic indicators showing signs of alignment, Rewane concluded that Nigeria may indeed be on the verge of its strongest and most sustainable economic cycle in years, provided policy consistency is maintained and structural gains are not reversed.
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