INTRODUCTION
On May 29, 2023, Nigerians entrusted the leadership of the nation to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu at one of the most difficult periods in Nigeria’s modern economic history.
The country faced a crippling fuel subsidy regime, mounting debt obligations, a fragmented foreign exchange market, weak investor confidence, insecurity, deteriorating infrastructure, declining industrial productivity, inflationary pressure, and severe strain on public finances.
The administration inherited an economy many analysts described as structurally weak and fiscally distressed.
Foreign exchange obligations had accumulated into billions of dollars. Fuel subsidy payments had become unsustainable. NNPCL remittances into the Federation Account had weakened significantly.
States struggled financially. Local governments had little developmental impact at the grassroots. Several sectors of the economy were surviving largely through borrowing and unsustainable government intervention.
Under previous administrations, many states struggled repeatedly to pay salaries. During the Jonathan administration, over twenty-seven states reportedly faced severe salary payment challenges. Under former President Muhammadu Buhari, bailout interventions became necessary for several states, while Ways and Means financing expanded significantly as government increasingly relied on Central Bank financing to sustain the economy.
At one point, debt servicing reportedly consumed almost all federal revenues, while the country borrowed heavily to sustain fuel subsidies and recurrent obligations.
Nigeria was also operating a multiple exchange-rate system widely criticised as vulnerable to corruption, arbitrage, leakages, and unfair access to foreign exchange.
Crude oil production faced serious challenges, oil theft expanded, pipelines deteriorated, and even future crude production was reportedly committed in advance under forward-sale arrangements.
From his very first day in office, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu signalled that difficult decisions would be required to stop what many viewed as national economic bleeding.
His declaration that “fuel subsidy is gone” immediately defined the tone of an administration prepared to undertake painful but structural reforms rather than continue unsustainable economic practices.
Many observers believe the President faced two choices: either continue the old system and join the cycle of unsustainable spending, or confront the structural distortions directly.
The administration chose the more difficult path.
Three years later, Nigeria still faces major economic and security pressures, but many Nigerians, investors, development institutions, and private sector stakeholders believe the country is undergoing one of the boldest economic and institutional reform programmes since the return to democracy in 1999.
This assessment examines the administration under three broad categories:
THE BEST
Areas where reforms have produced the strongest visible structural impact.
BETTER
Areas showing major progress and positive institutional direction.
GOOD/WORK IN PROGRESS
Areas where reforms are ongoing but where Nigerians still expect deeper results and broader national impact.
THE BEST
1. Fiscal Reforms & Financial Restructuring
One of the biggest structural reforms under the administration has been the removal of fuel subsidies and the strengthening of public revenues.
The reforms significantly increased allocations to states and local governments through FAAC.
In May 2023, the final FAAC allocation under the Buhari administration was approximately ₦600 billion.
By June 2023, the first full month under President Tinubu, approximately ₦1.9 trillion reportedly entered the Federation Account, with about ₦1.2 trillion shared among the three tiers of government while substantial reserves were retained.
