Back to the GSM story. As told by the then privatisation Czar, Mallam Nasir El Rufai, when Nigeria contemplated privatizing the telecoms sector, we offered it on a platter of gold, literally ₦1.00, to Vodafone, then the world’s largest telephone company. Vodafone from the UK, as recommended by the best business schools, then hired one of the top-5 global consulting firms to conduct a feasibility study on the project. The question was whether their foray into Nigeria would be profitable at all. The consulting firm, using all its best parameters and most-articulate eggheads came back with a negative result. “No!’, they informed Vodafone. “That country is too poor! Most of their people live in abject poverty. As a matter of fact, they could only afford a million GSM numbers!”. And so, Vodafone backed out, leaving the opportunity open for MTN, Econet and Glo, who I guess did less of the analysis but saw the acres of diamond. Contrary to the 1 million phone numbers projected by the global consulting firm, today Nigeria sports at least 200 million lines! Talk about being wrong by 200 miles! I think the GSM story is one of the instances where the Nigerian economy and society was totally misunderstood by those whom we least expect to be wrong. We should never forget that many of those who saunter around like they know everything, sometimes know nothing at all. Perhaps I should add, that MTN – the leading telecoms provider – has constantly made 40 per cent of its global profits (and turnover) from Nigeria since around 2002/3. Nigeria – rather than being a risky, poverty-addled country – is a great investment for the South African conglomerate.
Africa’s Alternative Route to Development: The Nigerian Case Study, By ‘Tope Fasua
