Another unusual feature of the election is that the three leading candidates are all from the Osun West Senatorial District.
Residents of Osun State will go to the polls on Saturday to elect their governor for the next four years. The off-cycle election appears to be shaping up as one of the most competitive political contests in Nigeria since the 2023 general elections.
The three major contenders are Governor Ademola Adeleke of the Accord Party, who is seeking a second term in office; a former Commissioner for Finance, Bola Oyebamiji, of the All Progressives Congress (APC); and Najeem Salaam, a former speaker of the state House of Assembly, who is running on the ticket of the African Democratic Congress (ADC).
The others are Olanrewaju Farinloye (AA); Esan Olajide (AAC); Adeagbo Opawoye (ADP); Adewale Adebayo (APM); Clement Adesuyi (APP); Masilo Adeleke (BP); Taofeek Adeleke (NNPP); Saliu Oyelami (PRP); Ogunsakin Olalekan (YPP); and Adefemi Adesuyi (ZLP).
The PDP, Mr Adeleke’s former party, which ruled the state under former Governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola and on which platform Mr Adeleke was elected in 2022, is not fielding any candidate due to a leadership crisis at the national level. The governor dumped the party for Accord last December.
The race is intriguing, first, because Mr Adeleke’s party does not control the state’s local government structure, which is particularly important. After all, local governments are often regarded as the grassroots foundation of Nigerian politics. The leadership of the 30 local government areas in the state remain in dispute, although many people believe that they are currently controlled by the APC, Mr Oyebamiji’s party, which has chairpersons in all the councils.
After Mr Adeleke won the 2022 governorship election, the then outgoing governor, Gboyega Oyetola, conducted the local government elections, with his party, the APC, sweeping the poll. When the former assumed office, he dissolved the councils and held new elections, all of which were won by his own party, the PDP.
The local government dispute subsequently became the subject of a prolonged legal battle. After the courts declared the removal of the elected APC council chairpersons as illegal, and the Court of Appeal restrained the state government from removing them, the federal government withheld allocations to the councils. The Supreme Court later dismissed a suit filed by the state government over the withheld council allocations. The apex court ruled that only the local governments had the legal standing to bring such actions.
The judgments effectively restored the APC chairpersons to office, although the state government still refused to recognise them. The state government also argues that even if the council chairpersons were returned, their tenures have lapsed and they should not remain in office. The councils’ situation may impact Saturday’s polls.
Another factor that makes the race particularly interesting is that the faction of the transport union currently controlling motor parks across the state has sympathy for the APC. Politicians use the union members as enforcers during elections. Aside from that, some members of the National Union of Road Transport Workers (NURTW) will be responsible for moving election materials from Registration Area Centres (RACs) to polling units and, subsequently, to collation centres on election day.
The faction forcefully took control of the motor parks about two weeks ago, with the support of the national leadership of the transport union, displacing the faction recognised by the state government.
These two developments have altered the political calculations in Osun State ahead of the off-cycle poll. In previous elections, control of the local government structure was a critical factor. Successive governors have typically sought to deploy local government machinery during election periods.
With the APC controlling the local government structures and the NURTW faction playing a role in moving election materials on election day, Mr Adeleke’s party faces an unusual challenge.
Despite being the incumbent party, the Accord Party appears overwhelmed at the grassroots and is now forced to navigate an electoral environment in which key structures traditionally controlled by the party in power are largely outside its control.
Another unusual feature of the election is that the three leading candidates are all from the Osun West Senatorial District. Mr Adeleke is from Ede, Mr Oyebamiji is from Ikire in Irewole Local Government Area, while Mr Salaam hails from Ejigbo.
The district has historically been a battleground in Osun governorship elections. It comprises 10 local government areas, namely Aiyedaade, Aiyedire, Ede North, Ede South, Egbedore, Ejigbo, Irewole, Isokan, Iwo and Ola-Oluwa, and has a substantial voting population.
The 2022 election illustrates its importance. Mr Adeleke won Osun West with 144,558 votes, representing 53.49 per cent of the valid votes cast in the district, while Mr Oyetola polled 116,860 votes, or 43.24 per cent. Mr Adeleke’s particularly strong performances in his home councils, Ede North and Ede South, contributed significantly to his advantage in the district.
The western district has not, however, been a permanent stronghold of any single party. In the 2014 election, Mr Aregbesola won several councils in Osun West, including Ede North, Ede South, Irewole, Egbedore, Iwo and Ejigbo, even though some councils in the district were won by his main challenger, Iyiola Omisore. Mr Aregbesola eventually won 22 of the state’s 30 local government areas and secured re-election.
The 2018 election further demonstrated how closely fought elections in the district and the state could be. Mr Adeleke initially emerged with a 353-vote advantage over Mr Oyetola statewide, scoring 254,698 votes against Mr Oyetola’s 254,345. Following the supplementary election, however, Mr Oyetola overtook Mr Adeleke and won by just 482 votes.
The presence of three major candidates from Osun West, therefore, creates a different electoral calculation. Rather than the district serving primarily as a two-way battleground, votes that might previously have consolidated behind one of the major candidates will now be divided among three candidates.
Although Mr Adeleke enters the race with the strongest advantage of incumbency, including greater visibility through capital projects and welfare initiatives, the reality is that he does not control some of the state structures that could have strengthened his chances of winning. These include the security apparatus, as well as the local government and transport union structures.
The governor had planned to mobilise personnel of Amotekun, the state-owned security outfit, to monitor the election in collaboration with the police, the Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC) and other security agencies. The police have rejected that move and banned Amotekun and other such paramilitary outfits from election duty. The police have also deployed 15,000 officers for the election.
Mr Adeleke’s campaign organisation, popularly known as the Imole Campaign Council, has repeatedly accused the police in Osun State of intimidating and harassing its supporters. The police have denied the allegations.
Bamidele Sallam, a federal lawmaker and chairman of the media and publicity sub-committee of the campaign council, said more than 60 leaders and members of the governor’s party are currently in police detention.
The campaign spokesperson, Pelumi Olajengbesi, also alleged that the governor’s supporters were arrested without justification and transferred to the Force Headquarters in Abuja. On 3 August, the campaign council petitioned the National Human Rights Commission (NHRC), seeking the unconditional release of its supporters, who it said had been arrested and detained by the police.
The allegations escalated recently when the police raided the Osogbo residence of the Secretary to the State Government (SSG), Teslim Igbalaye, and arrested him alongside five others over alleged vote-buying.
The police said they recovered N4.8 million in cash, a Dynabook laptop, a photocopying machine, a printer, two voter cards and a voters’ register covering Wards 1 to 15 in Osogbo Local Government Area.
Mr Igbalaye was later released after the state government and the state House of Assembly intervened.
Amid the allegations and counter-allegations, some residents believe the police are being influenced by individuals within the Presidency to frustrate Mr Adeleke’s administration. However, no independent evidence is presented in these accounts to substantiate the allegation of presidential interference.
Isaika Osuntogun, a commercial driver in Osogbo, said many of his passengers believed the APC was using federal power to wrest control of Osun State from the opposition.
