Special Reports

ELECTION 2027: Tinubu and APC must be wary of Kwara Central elite power grab policy, and their superior population myth

Adversaries of equity and justice in Kwara State have been bombarding President Bola Tinubu and other national APC leaders with a false narrative that the party will lose the 2027 gubernatorial election if the party’s flagbearer is not from Kwara Central, pushing the false premise that the district is the most populous. Olukayode Thomas not only debunked the fallacy but also advised President Tinubu and APC that any attempt to perpetuate Kwara Central’s hegemony will alienate Kwarans from North and South and lead to overall voter apathy.

Introduction

Love him or hate him, one thing you can’t take away from James Onanefe Ibori, the Governor of Delta State from 1999 to 2007, is his belief in equity and justice when it comes to power sharing among the three senatorial zones in Delta State.

After his eight-year tenure, Ibori, an Urhobo from Delta Central, ensured that the next Governor of the state, Emmanuel Uduaghan, was from another senatorial zone, Delta South.

After Uduaghan’s tenure, 2007 to 2015, Ibori’s people, the Urhobo, who are the most populous in Delta State, attempted to disorganise the rotational policy and elect one of their own as the next governor, since politics is a game of numbers.

The Urhobo Progressive Union (UPU), unarguably the biggest sociocultural organisation in Delta, backed the ambition of David Edevbie, then state Commissioner of Finance under Ibori, and late President Umaru Yar’Adua’s private secretary, as the next Governor.

But Ibori said no. While he agreed that politics is a game of numbers, he also believed that it’s also one of equity and justice. He worked against the interests of his people and friend Edevbie.

He ensured power shifted to the minority Delta North, which was how Ifeanyi Okowa became the governor of Delta State from 2015 to 2023.

In Edo State, power had eluded Edo Central for many years, save a brief period when Oserheimen Osunbor governed. It was sixteen years of Edo South under Lucky Igbinedion and Godwin Obaseki, and eight years of Edo South under Adams Oshiomhole.

In 2024, Edo leaders sat down and decided that in the spirit of fair play, Edo Central must be given a sense of belonging.

The major parties in the state, APC and PDP, decided to field candidates from Edo Central, Monday Okpebholo of APC and Asue Ighodalo of PDP. Okpebholo won the election.

In Kwara, it has been ‘Central’ from 1999 to date

Apart from Delta and Edo, many states in Nigeria encourage and practice rotation of governorship seats among the three senatorial zones.

But in Kwara State, the Central district has consistently produced the governors since 1999.

The first governor, Muhammed Lawal, was from Idi-Ape; the second governor, Bukola Saraki, is from Agbaji, while the third governor, Abdulfatah Ahmed, though originally from Share, is a Pakata boy from Ilorin, while the present governor, Abdulrahman Alade Abdulrasak, is from Adewale – all in Ilorin.

Some hypocritical Kwarans who are enemies of the truth will, for the sake of argument, say Ahmed is from Kwara South, but that is just like saying Kemi Badenoch, the Leader of the Opposition in the United Kingdom, is a Nigerian.

Kemi was born in the United Kingdom to Nigerian parents. She even moved to Nigeria at one point, living in Surulere, and she attended International School (ISL) at the University of Lagos. But her actions and utterances clearly demonstrate that she is not a Nigerian.

Just like Kemi, Ahmed, though originally from Share in Ifelodun Local Government Area of Kwara State, never identified with Share, let alone Kwara South, when he was Commissioner for Finance, and later Economic Development for eight years, and Governor for eight years. Rather, he is known in Kwara as a Pakata (Ilorin) Boy through and through.

During his campaign for a second term in 2015, Ahmed, ‘Sai Maigida’ as he is fondly called, was in Jebba, and wanted to pay homage to the Oba of the town as tradition demands.

At the roundabout that led to the Oba’s palace, Ahmed abruptly turned back and headed to another location. Within a few hours, word had gone round that Ahmed had been instructed not to pay homage to the Oba of Jebba because the Ilorin Emirate did not recognise him as an Oba. This is just an instance of Ahmed’s subservience to Kwara Central.

Lafiagi and Ahmed were mere placeholders as Governors

A political observer from Kwara North, Ibrahim Gunu, posits that most Kwarans know the truth about the Central elites’ power-grab policy, but they shy away from saying it because of the fear of losing their daily livelihood.

‘‘We in the North and South of Kwara are too docile before Central elites. We are second-class citizens and are never in control of anything. Even when they give us positions, be it ministerial, commissionerships and even in the civil service, we will be in office but never in power.

“When they want to cede power for a while to give the impression of being democrats, they will pick an Uncle Tom (like America House Slaves) among us that they can control and make them governors.

“For example, Shaaba Lafiagi and Ahmed were mere placeholders for the period they were governors. They can’t sign anything or award any contract without the approval of their masters from Central.

“Lafiagi and Ahmed’s years as governors could rightly be called the years of the locust in Kwara North and South. They neglected their people and developed only Central.

“Ahmed was even worse, they call him ‘Sai Maigida’ because he is an Ilorin Emirate boy, or have you ever seen any Yoruba man who identifies with the Yoruba root from Kwara South being called ‘Sai’, they will rather be called Chief, Otunba, Bashorun or High Chief.

“He neglected his zone and even his hometown, Share completely. This accounted for his rejection when he aspired to represent Kwara South in the Senate in 2019.’’ Said Gunu.

Central’s domination has not advanced the zone or the state