$110 oil price: Windfall or warning?, By Posi Olatubosun

When oil prices rise sharply, Nigeria’s treasury benefits. Will Nigerians also benefit? On 16 October, Brent crude exceeded $110 per barrel, reaching its highest level since May, as conflicts involving Iran and the war between Russia and Ukraine continued to threaten global supply. For an economy that still derives most of its foreign exchange from crude oil, this surge appears to represent positive news. The 2026 budget was based on an oil price of approximately $65 per barrel, meaning that each barrel sold today generates substantially more revenue than anticipated. However, history counsels caution. Nigeria has experienced oil booms before, but too often they have ended with limited savings, increased debt, and little improvement in household welfare. The central question is not how much Nigeria earns from oil at $110 per barrel, but how it uses the proceeds.