Nigeria records fewer security incidents, but election violence claims more lives – CDD

The number of security incidents recorded across Nigeria declined in October, but election-related violence increased, with attacks on political campaigns and convoys raising concerns about the safety of political activities ahead of the 2027 general elections.

The Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD-West Africa) disclosed this in its October 2026 Nigeria Election Security Tracker, released on Tuesday in Abuja.

The report, which monitored security developments between October 1 and 31, showed that overall security incidents dropped by 22.07 per cent, from 222 recorded in September to 173 in October.

However, fatalities rose sharply by 61.62 per cent, from 396 in September to 640 in October, indicating that the decline in the number of incidents did not translate into fewer deaths.

According to the report, broader insecurity accounted for 638 of the fatalities, while attacks on communities, farms and roads contributed significantly to the death toll.

The North-East recorded the highest number of deaths, with 409 fatalities during the period.

The tracker also raised concerns over the growing threat to political activities, revealing that election-related security incidents increased from 14 in September to 16 in October, representing a 14.29 per cent rise.

It identified attacks on campaign gatherings, political convoys and party property, as well as restrictions on supporters’ participation in political activities, as some of the incidents threatening the electoral environment.

Among the reported cases were two fatal attacks involving campaigns of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) in Enugu and Ebonyi states.

The report said Ifeanyi Nwolie was killed during the party’s campaign launch in Enugu on October 10.

It also documented an attack by gunmen on the convoy of Rollins Offia-Nwali in Ebonyi State on October 22, which left one person dead and three others injured.

Geographically, the North-West and North-Central recorded a combined 110 security incidents, accounting for 63.58 per cent of the nationwide total.

Among the four focal states monitored by the tracker, Plateau recorded the highest number of incidents with 24, followed by Katsina with 12.

Beyond physical violence, the report documented 75 misinformation, disinformation and hate speech narratives in October, representing a 28.57 per cent decline from the 105 recorded in September.

Of the narratives identified, 37 were classified as false, 31 as misleading, two involved religious threats and hostility, while five lacked sufficient evidence for verification.

The CDD said false campaign claims, manipulated images, fabricated electoral notices and misleading security information continued to circulate, with the potential to undermine public confidence in the electoral process.

It warned that such narratives could deepen political tensions and distort public understanding of electoral developments as political activities intensify ahead of the 2027 elections.

The organisation called on security agencies to strengthen protection for political gatherings and campaign activities, investigate attacks and ensure that perpetrators are brought to justice.

It also urged authorities to support displaced voters and improve access to credible electoral information to prevent misinformation from undermining public participation in the forthcoming elections.